Заблуждения толпы - Бернстайн Уильям Дж. (читать книги без регистрации .TXT, .FB2) 📗

357. См.: Malcolm Gladwell, David and Goliath (New York: Little, Brown and Company, 2013), p. 103.

358. См.: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013), p. 4–7.

359. См.: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science Vol. 185, No. 4157 (September 27, 1974), p. 1124.

360. Там же, 1130.

361. Чаще всего ссылаются на статью Канемана и Тверски «Суждение при неопределенности». Также см. работы этих авторов: “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology Vol. 5 (1973): p. 207–232; “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,” Psychological Bulletin Vol. 76, No. 2 (1971): p. 105–110; “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness,” Cognitive Psychology Vol. 3 (1972): p. 430–454; “On the Psychology of Prediction,” Psychological Review Vol. 80, No. 4 (July 1973): p. 237–251; “On the study of statistical intuitions,” Cognition Vol. 11 (1982): p. 123–141; and “Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures,” Advances in Decision Technology, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, 1977.

362. О жертвах применения огнестрельного оружия см.: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/injury.htm; о жертвах аварий: https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/motor-vehicle-safety/; о наркотиках: https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/.

363. С 2005 по 2019 год террористы убили 250 израильтян, то есть приблизительно пятнадцать человек в год, а только в 2018 году в дорожных авариях погибло 315 человек (см.: https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/comprehensive-listing-of-terrorism-victims-in-israel и https://www.timesofisrael.com/cautious-optimism-as-annual-road-deaths-drop-for – the-first-time-in‐5-years/).

364. В 1925 году в США насчитывалось 20 000 000 автомобилей при населении в 116 миллионов человек; см.: http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/1027_motor_ vehicle_registrations.html, дата обращения 18.07.2016.

365. См.: Allen, The Lords of Creation, p. 235–236.

366. См.: John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria (Knoxville, TN: Whittle Direct Books, 1990), p. 16.

367. См.: Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1988), p. 22.

368. См.: K. Geert Rouwenhorst, “The Origins of Mutual Funds,” in The Origins of Value, William N. Goetzmann and K. Geert Rouwenhorst, Eds. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 249.

369. См.: Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929, p. 47.

370. Извлечение из: Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929, 60–63; и J. Bradford De Long and Andrei Schleifer, “The Stock Market Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-end Mutual Funds,” The Journal of Economic History Vol. 51, No. 3 (September 1991): p. 678.

371. См.: Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929, p. 58–62; и Barrie Wigmore, The Crash and Its Aftermath (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1985), p. 40, 45, 248–250.

372. Из базы данных Роберта Шиллера; см.: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ ie_data.xls, дата обращения 17.07.2016.

373. Там же.

374. См.: Neal, The Rise of Financial Capitalism, p. 232–257. Даже эти цифры, возможно, преувеличивают рост цен, ведь 1709 год видел приближение конца опустошительной Войны за испанское наследство и потом знаменовал собой нижнюю точку отсчета.

375. См.: “Radio Declares Dividend,” Ellensburg Daily Record, November 5, 1937.

376. «Каноном» здесь выступает формулировка Дж. Уильямса: John Burr Williams, The Theory of Investment Value (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1938). Также см. Irving Fisher, The Theory of Interest (New York: The Macmillan Company, 1930); и Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, Security Analysis (New York: Whittlesey House, 1934).

377. См.: Graham and Dodd, p. 310.

378. См.: Frederick Lewis Allen, Only Yesterday (New York: Perennial Classics, 2000), p. 265. Увы, мне не удалось отыскать первоисточник.

Глава 7

379. См.: Bernstein, The Birth of Plenty, p. 127–128.

380. Cм.: The Bend [OR] Bulletin, July 16, 1938, p. 1, 5.

381. См.: Allen, The Lords of Creation, p. 267–269.

382. Цит. по: in Allen, The Lords of Creation, p. 281–282.

383. Там же, p. 266–286.

384. См.: Virginia State Corporation Commission, “Staff Investigation on the Restructuring of the Electric Industry,” https://www.scc.virginia.gov/comm/reports/restrct3.pdf, дата обращения 17.04.2019.

385. См.: Allen, The Lords of Creation, p. 279

386. Там же.

387. См.: Adolph A. Berle, Jr., and Gardiner C. Means, The Modern Corporation and Private Property (New York: The Macmillan Company, 1948), p. 205nl8.

388. См.: Allen, The Lords of Creation, p. 281.

389. Там же, p. 286.

390. Cм.: Arthur R. Taylor, “Losses to the Public in the Insull Collapse: 1932–1946,” The Business History Review Vol. 36, No. 2 (Summer 1962): p. 188.

391. См.: “Former Ruler of Utilities Dies in France,” Berkeley Daily Gazette, July 16, 1938.

392. См.: “Insull Drops Dead in a Paris Station,” The Montreal Gazette Vol. 167, No. 170 (July 18, 1938): p. 9.

393. См.: Allen, The Lords of Creation, p. 353–354.

394. См.: Evans Clark, Ed., The Internal Debts of the United States (New York: The Macmillan Company, 1933), p. 14.

395. См., например: “Reveal Stock Pool Clears 5 Million in Week,” Chicago Tribune Vol. 91, No. 121 (May 20, 1932): p. 1.

396. См.: Samuel Crowther, “Everybody Ought to Be Rich: An Interview with John J. Raskob,” Ladies’ Home Journal, August 19, 1929, reprinted in David M. P. Freund, The Modern American Metropolis (New York: Wiley-Blackwell, 2015), p. 157–159. Оценка тиража: Douglas B. Ward, “The Geography of the Ladies’ Home Journal: An Analysis of a Magazine’s Audience, 1911–55,” Journalism History Vol. 34, No. 1 (Spring, 2008): p. 2.

397. См.: Yanek Mieczkowski, The Routledge Historical Atlas of Presidential Elections (New York: Routledge, 2001), p. 94.

398. См.: Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929, p. 139.

399. См.: David Kestenbaum, “What’s a Bubble?” http://www.npr.org/sections/ money/2013/11/15/245251539/whats-a-bubble, дата обращения 01.08.2016. Пример академического исследования деятельности финансовых менеджеров: Michael C. Jensen, “The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945–64,” Journal of Finance Vol. 23, No. 2 (May 1968): p. 389–416; John R. Graham and Campbell R. Harvey, “Grading the Performance of Market Timing Newsletters,” Financial Analysts Journal Vol. 53, No. 6 (November/December 1997): p. 54–66; и Mark M. Carhart, “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance,” Journal of Finance Vol. 52, No. 1 (March 1997): p. 57–82.

400. Cм.: Robert Shiller, Market Volatility (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1992), p. 56.

401. См.: Anonymous, “Jacobellis v. Ohio,” https://www.law.comell.edu/supremecourt/ text/378/184#ZC1–378_US_ 184fn2/2, дата обращения 01.08. 2016.

402. См.: Allen, Only Yesterday, p. 288.

403. Там же, p. 273–274.

404. См.: Chancellor, p. 210.

405. См.: Alexander Dana Noyes, The Marketplace (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1938), p. 323–324.

406. См.: Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929, 84–85; and The Wall Street Journal September 6, 1929.

407. См.: “Fisher Sees Stocks Permanently High,” New York Times, October 16, 1929, p. 8.

408. См.: Michael Perino, The Hellhound of Wall Street (New York: The Penguin Press, 2010), p. 197.

409. См.: Bruce Barton, “Is There Anything Here that Other Men Couldn’t Do?” American Magazine 95 (February 1923): p. 128, цит. по: Susan Estabrook Kennedy, The Banking Crisis of 1933 (Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky, 1973), p. 113–114.

410. Цит. по: Allen, The Lords of Creation, 313; также см. Edmund Wilson, The American Earthquake (Garden City, NY: Anchor Doubleday Books, 1958), p. 485.

411. См.: Allen, The Lords of Creation, p. 313–319.

412. См.: Edmund Wilson, p. 485.