Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости - Талеб Нассим Николас (книги бесплатно без TXT) 📗

Gigerenzer, G., U. Hoffrage, and H. Kleinbolting, 1991, „Probabilistic Mental Models: A Brunswikian Theory of Confidence.“ Psychological Review 98: 506–528.

Gigerenzer, G., and H. R. Richter, 1990, „Context Effects and Their Interaction with Development: Area Judgments.“ Cognitive Developments: 235–264.

Gigerenzer, G., Z. Swijtink, T. Porter, L. J. Daston, J. Beatty, and L. Kriiger, 1989, The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Gilbert, D., E. Pinel, T. D. Wilson, S. Blumberg, and T. Weatley, 2002, „Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting.“ In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002.

Gilbert, Daniel, 2006, Stumbling on Happiness. New York: Knopf. Gilbert, Daniel Т., 1991, „How Mental Systems Believe.“ American Psychologist 46:107–119.

Gilbert, Daniel Т., Romin W. Tafarodi, and Patrick S. Malone, 1993, „You Can't Not Believe Everything You Read.“ Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 65: 221–233.

Gillespie, John V., 1979, Review of William Ascher's Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners in The American Political Science Review 73(2): 554–555.

Gillies, Donald, 2000, /Philosophical Theories of Probability. London: Routledge.

Gilovich, Т., D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002, Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Gladwell, Malcolm, 1996, 'The Tipping Point: Why Is the City Suddenly So Much Safer — Could It Be That Crime Really Is an Epidemic?» The New Yorker, June 3.

-, 2000, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. New York: Little, Brown.

-, 2002, «Blowing Up: How Nassim Taleb Turned the Inevitability of Disaster into an Investment Strategy.» The New Yorker, April 22 and 29.

Glenzel, W., 2003, Bibliometrics as a Research Field: A Course on the Theory and Application of Bibliometric Indicators. Preprint.

Gleik, James, 1987, Chaos: Making a New Science. London: Abacus.

Glimcher, Paul, 2002, Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain: The Science of Neuroeconomics. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

Goldberg, Elkhonon, 2001, The Executive Brain: Frontal Lobes and the Civilized Mind. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

-, 2005, The Wisdom Paradox: How Your Mind Can Grow Stronger as Your Brain Grows Older. New York: Gotham.

Goleman, Daniel, 1995, Emotional Intelligence: Why It Could Matter More Than IQ. New York: Bantam Books.

-, 2003, Destructive Emotions, How Can We Overcome Them? A Scientific Dialogue with the Dalai Lama. New York: Bantam.

Goodman, N., 1955, Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. Cambridge, Mass.:Harvard University Press.

-, 1972, «Seven Strictures on Similarity.» In N. Goodman, ed., Problems and Projects. New York: Bobbs-Merrill.

Gopnik, A., C. Glymour, D. M. Sobel, L. E. Schulz, T. Kushnir, and D. Danks, 2004, «A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets.» Psychological Review 111:3–32.

Granger, Clive W. J., 1999,EmpiricalModelinginEconomics: Specification and Evaluation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Gray, John, 2002, Straw Dogs: Thoughts on Humans and Other Animals. London: Granta Books. Green, Jack, 1962, Fire the Bastards! New York: Dalkey Archive Press.

Green, К. C, 2005, «Game Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: Further Evidence.» International Journal of Forecasting 21: 463–472.

Griffin, D. W., and A. TVersky, 1992, «The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence.» Cognitive Psychology 24: 411–435.

Griffin, D. W, and C. A. Varey, 1996, «Towards a Consensus on Over-confidence.» Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65: 227–231.

Gripaios, Peter, 1994, «The Use and Abuse of Economic Forecasts.» Management Decision 32(6): 61–64.

Guedj, Olivier, and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2006, «Experts' Earning Forecasts: Bias, Herding and Gossamer Information,» forthcoming.

Guglielmo, Cavallo, and Roger Chartier, 1997, Histoire de la lecture dans le monde occidental. Pahs: Editions du Seuil.

Gurvitch, Georges, 1957, «Continuite et discontinuite en histoire et sociologie.» Annales E.S.C.: 73–84.

-, 1966, The Social Framework of Knowledge. New York: Harper Torchbooks.

Hacking, Ian, 1965, Logic of Statistical Inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

-, 1983, Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the Philosophy of Natural Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

-, 1990, The Taming of Chance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

-, 1999, The Social Construction of What? Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

-, 2001, An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Hahn, Frank, 1993, «Predicting the Economy.» In Leo Howe and Alan Wain, eds., 1993.

Hannon, L., 2003, «Poverty, Delinquency, and Educational Attainment: Cumulative Disadvantage or Disadvantage Saturation?» Sociological Inquiry 73:575–594.

Hansen, R. D., and J. M. Donoghue, 1977, «The Power of Consensus: Information Derived from One's Own and Others' Behavior.» Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35: 294–302.

Hardy, G. H., 1940, A Mathematician's Apology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Harris, Olivia, 2004, «Braudel: Historical Time and the Horror of Discontinuity.» History Workshop Journal 57:161–174.

Harvey, N., 1997, «Confidence in Judgment.» Trends in Cognitive Science 1: 78–82.

Hasher, L., and R. T. Zacks, 1979, «Automatic and Effortful Processes in Memory.» Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 108: 356–388.

Haug, Espen, 2007, Derivatives: Models on Models. New York: Wiley.

Hausman, Daniel M., ed., 1994, The Philosophy of Economics: An Anthology, 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Hayek, F. A., 1945, «The Use of Knowledge in Society.» American Economic Review 35(4): 519–530.

-, 1994, The Road to Serfdom. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Hecht, Jennifer Michael, 2003, Doubt: A History New York: Harper Collins.

Hempel, C, 1965, Aspects of Scientific Explanation. New York: The Free Press.

Henderson, Bill, and Andre Bernard, eds., Rotten Reviews and Rejections. Wainscott,